Juvenile Hurdle Project

The Juvenile Hurdle Project was started part way into this season (2010-2011) as it was clear that FormChecker could not really assess these races due to lack of form!!! Therefore, I decided to start looking at how breeding and Dosage might be able to help predict winners of these events. I am indebted to Ben Aitken for introducing me to breeding analyses and it is well worth buying the second edition of his Narrowing The Field book - go to our Shop for the link!

The Juvenile Hurdle Project really has been successful with winners ranging from Zakeeta (16/1), Whipperway (16/1) and Tiptronic (100/1) to Big Talk (placed at 125/1) and Meetings Man (placed at 66/1) and many other long-priced placed efforts.

Look out for The Juvenile Hurdle Project eBook coming out for the 2010-2011 jumps season - written by The Chancellor it will be available for when the season gets into gear at the end of September 2010. There will be an accompanying package of book and Juvenile reports through the season as The Chancellor helps you win! If you want our small Juvenile reports for the remainder of the season for FREE, the go to Contact Us and simply ask.

The Juvenile Hurdle Project
 
A nice little event at Folkestone today where the ground will be ever so testing (2nd inspection at 8am so fingers crossed!). Nine of the last eleven Juvenile events here have been run on soft or heavy ground so the stats should help us out today! Eight of the last eleven winners here have been horses with some speed but a lot of stamina in their breeding. Two have had a bit more speed than stamina whilst one winner on heavy was a major speed horse! So, what of today?
 

• The optimum group consists of Mr Muddle, Lady Willa (WON at 14/1) and Polo Springs. The first named has been impressive so far in tow runs without getting in front. Therefore, I am sure he'll be quite short in the market (odds-on probably)
• Just outside of this group are Don Stefano, Knockdolian and Meglio Ancora. On a usual day we might consider these but as it is only a seven runner race and three are in the optimum group I will ignore there for today
• There is one speed horse in Goodison Park.

Look below and you'll see Tillahow, Fearless Falcon and Chaperoned the 1-2-3 in this race. Job done!

Punchestown

Some speed but also a fair bit of stamina appears to be the key to success at Punchestown in Juvenile events. The odd speedier type has been known to win but this is quite infrequent. So, what of today?

• Horses with some speed but also stamina in their breeding include Fearless Falcon, Mister Carter, Tillahow and Chaperoned. Those with heavy stamina in their breeding have been less successful within this group and today that is Mister Carter and Chaperoned
• Little Green might be one to follow in the future.